After the epidemic, the manufacturing industry has been hit the hardest. Where should China’s manufacturing industry go?

After the epidemic, the importance of manufacturing has become more and more prominent.

In February and March of this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic swept the world. Wherever the virus passed, it set off a rush to buy daily necessities, and many countries suspended the export of food and some important medical supplies. The wealthy European countries even withheld protective materials from each other.

On the basis of effectively controlling the epidemic, China’s manufacturing capabilities have also attracted worldwide attention.

On the one hand, when the epidemic was at the head of the epidemic, China’s industrial system with a daily production of 116 million masks and more than 200,000 sets of medical protective clothing created the miracle of 40,000 Chinese medical workers in Hubei with zero infection; Italy, which is rich in luxury goods, is in the process of cheap masks. , protective clothing and other “clothing” fell into trouble, due to the shortage of protective equipment.

When the domestic capacity of various epidemics was stretched, China basically extinguished the domestic epidemic and began to continuously send anti-epidemic materials overseas, becoming a solid rear for the world to resist the new crown epidemic.

On the other hand, in the first half of the year, China’s textile exports, including masks, increased by 32.4%, and exports of medicinal materials and medicines, medical instruments and equipment increased by 23.6% and 46.4%, respectively. China’s exports of anti-epidemic materials have increased significantly, and related manufacturing companies have also been activated.

At the same time, after the epidemic, countries have strengthened their control over the manufacturing industry. The United States, Japan and other countries have begun to accelerate the return of manufacturing to the mainland. Some countries even tried to “de-Sinicization” in the supply chain, and a supply chain defense war started… …

01 Manufacturing industry is the most affected

In fact, in this epidemic, because the industrial chain of each country is embedded in the global industrial chain, the manufacturing industry of each country has been greatly impacted.

When China was still the main battlefield of the epidemic, looking at the entire manufacturing industry, in addition to manufacturing enterprises related to epidemic prevention, many places across the country adopted policies such as “closure of cities”, “road closures”, and delays in starting work, resulting in many factories shutting down and breaking cash flow. , Insufficient number of returning workers, blocked transportation and logistics, restricted upstream and downstream raw material and product circulation, these problems are really impacting manufacturing enterprises.

As the hub of the global manufacturing supply chain, the shutdown of Chinese manufacturing companies has spread to foreign countries through the global industrial chain and supply chain. Many manufacturing companies around the world have stopped production due to the interruption of supply by Chinese companies.

You must know that half of the world’s industrial products are manufactured in China, especially in Asian countries such as South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, etc., 40% of their consumer product chains come from China.

Take a small wiring harness as an example, it spreads almost all over the body and is tightly bound to the production of the OEM, and 87% of the wiring harness components of Korean car companies come from China. The sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic has made South Korea Hyundai and Kia are suffering from supply chain shortages.

Bangladeshi jeans makers can’t even fulfill a small order because the raw materials come from China, and the “dominoes” fall.

After finally waiting for the domestic epidemic to gradually subside, the outbreak of the overseas epidemic has caused a second wave of impact on China’s manufacturing industry.

In fact, even without the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China’s manufacturing industry has long been struggling:

On the one hand, the policy of environmental protection and production capacity reduction, and the economic restructuring “from secondary to tertiary” have already taken “half of the life” of China’s manufacturing industry.

The labor-intensive manufacturing industry is finally transforming into unmanned and automated industries. Unexpectedly, the outbreak of the epidemic has restricted the flow of people. Most manufacturing companies cannot work remotely, nor can they resume work and production. Expenses, as well as various economic expenses such as liquidated damages that may result from the failure to deliver the product normally, are “delayed to death”.

On the other hand, the world has gone to the WTO and trade friction has repeatedly “played hard” on the manufacturing industry, making the manufacturing industry deeply embedded in the global industrial chain miserable, and the epidemic has led to “closed cities” and “country closures” in many countries and out of stock. , supply cuts have made some customers and suppliers look for “substitutes” and reduce “China dependence”, which is undoubtedly worse for the manufacturing industry.

02It is also the most dependent on manufacturing

However, the manufacturing industry here is “shouted and killed”, and misfortunes do not come singly. Over there, natural disasters, plagues and other emergencies are particularly dependent on the manufacturing industry.

During the epidemic, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology “deliberately” selected 73 bureau-level and division-level cadres as resident commissioners to go to 56 key production enterprises and raw material supply enterprises in 16 provinces and cities to ensure that the whole process of production and transportation of epidemic prevention supplies can be controlled. , solve business difficulties in a timely manner; in order to ensure the epidemic prevention work, the coal, coking, chemical, metallurgy and many other manufacturing enterprises work overtime to produce “epidemic” materials.

Everyone is staring at the manufacturing industry, hoping that relevant manufacturing companies will increase their production capacity and “save China’s economy from dire straits” as soon as possible.

For this reason, some people ridiculed: “Without the epidemic, you simply don’t know how important manufacturing is.”

This also really made the real economy enterprises have a face, “Look, at the critical moment, we have to rely on our real manufacturing industry to support!”

In fact, it is not only the sudden epidemic that highlights the high reliance on the manufacturing industry. As the foundation of the national economy, high-speed rail infrastructure, travel by car, buying and selling goods on Internet e-commerce platforms, scientific and technological innovation… No matter how innovative technology is, how powerful the Internet is, “Everything is inseparable from manufacturing.”

It not only maintains social stability by absorbing employment, but is also a key factor in the changes in China’s demographic structure.

In recent years, China’s industrialization has completed the transfer of 240 million “surplus rural labor”, which not only promoted urbanization, but also sent China into the ranks of manufacturing powers. It is no wonder that the United States has kept China in check and stepped up efforts to “return manufacturing to the United States.”

After all, the hollowing out of the industry has hurt the United States, and it is the strong high-end manufacturing capacity that is behind the adjustment of the national strategy.

At the beginning, the US military used advanced equipment armed with high-performance chips, such as “Tomahawk” cruise missiles, radar precision-guided weapons, Electronic blockades and anti-radiation weapons, to defeat the Iraqi army on the battlefield.

Today, “after this epidemic”, the world has come to a deeper understanding that it is the manufacturing industry that can best reflect the characteristics of globalization.

03 Manufacturing upgrades are more important

It is undeniable that the epidemic has indeed magnified the role of the manufacturing industry, but often the most terrifying thing is to turn back when faced with difficulties. We must admit one thing: no one has ever thought that manufacturing is unimportant, but still the saying “manufacturing power does not mean manufacturing power”.

For example, many people think that mask production is a low-end industry, but 3M in the United States can rely on masks to “get out of the circle” and stand at the top of the global mask market.

As early as during SARS in 2003, 3M masks were the safe choice for medical care and consumers;

In 2013, under the threat of PM2.5, the N95 masks produced by 3M’s global factories accounted for 90% of the Chinese market share, making them the nobles of masks.

In fact, 3M is not only a C-rank company in the mask industry, but also its innovation ability. It is not only a Fortune 500 company, but also has more than 100,000 patents. In addition to household products, telecommunications, electrical, transportation, aviation, etc. Business, the latest IHPS combat helmet distributed in the United States is also a product of 3M company. If it is said that “Hong Kong people cannot do without Li Ka-shing, then half of the world’s people cannot do without 3M”.

On the other hand, in China, low-end production lines have insufficient reserves, and high-end production lines have a low degree of autonomy. This is not only the current situation of Chinese mask manufacturing companies, but most domestic manufacturing companies are showing a pair of “let’s just go through it, and only look forward to it.” Go ahead” speculative look.

Perhaps from another perspective, the epidemic has just exposed the pain points that China’s manufacturing industry has been reluctant to look directly at. It will not only force the manufacturing industry to speed up the transformation and upgrading, but also the generalization of automation equipment and the pain points of reducing labor dependence. will be further strengthened.

What’s more, on the one hand, the manufacturing industry is saturated and overcapacity; on the other hand, China’s large-scale consumption upgrade is on the way. “Material consumption is infinitely small, spiritual consumption is infinitely large”, and “spending money to buy experience and service” has gradually become fashionable.

Moreover, according to the 2019 China’s economic operation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of the tertiary industry was 53,423.3 billion yuan, accounting for 53.9% of the GDP, which was also 14.9 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry (38,616.5 billion yuan).

Undoubtedly, the tertiary service industry has taken up half the sky of China’s economy and can bring more employment, more consumption, lower energy consumption and pollution. These are irreversible facts.

04The future development trend of secondary and tertiary production

According to this logic, in the long run, China’s economic development will inevitably extend along the two vertical and horizontal axes. The manufacturing volume will continue to be huge, but the employment will be greatly reduced, and the number of companies will also be reduced.

Not to mention, the manufacturing industry cannot help but be stimulated by the huge market demand in the process of “from low-end to high-end”. AI artificial intelligence, driverless cars, etc. will inevitably continue to stimulate the volume expansion of high-end manufacturing.

In addition, new technologies such as the Internet of Things and cloud computing will be more widely embedded in the manufacturing industry in the future, creating unmanned and digital factories and reducing manual intervention will be “must haves”, and efficiency will be improved. “Anyone can do it. Why do you need three people for the job?” Naturally, it reduces employment and the number of companies.

In fact, this has already been revealed. For example, Xuzhou Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. has an intelligent production line that is compatible with 18 processes and produces more than 20 kinds of products. One worker can control 10 machines. When other factories are still troubled by the shortage of workers, it has already Fighting the “epidemic” and resuming work are both correct.

So, where should the people who “replace people with machines” idle from the manufacturing industry “return to”? This is doomed that the tertiary industry service industry will grow substantially, open up, increase employment, absorb employment, and take over the important task of stabilizing the society.

After all, the employment form of the tertiary industry service industry itself is more flexible. A car, a street stall, or even a mobile phone can attract countless people to employment, which is perfect for stabilizing employment and society.

Relevant data show that from 2012 to 2018, the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry rose from 36.1% to 46.3%, surpassing the secondary industry and becoming the main force in absorbing employment.

The express delivery industry alone has attracted more than one million jobs, indirectly driving more than 10 million jobs.

Moreover, according to the law of industrial structure development, the evolution from resource- and labor-intensive industries to capital- and technology-intensive industries is inevitable.

However, with the integration of industry and informatization, the servitization of manufacturing and producer services will continue to blur the strict boundaries of traditional industries.